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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-04-21T18:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-04-21T18:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24720/-1
CME Note: Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption starting around 2023-04-21T17:30Z visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304, as well as STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery near the vicinity of Active Region 3283. An EUV wave is visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 starting around 18:00Z, with an associated M1.7 flare peaking at 18:12Z. Post-eruptive dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193 starting around 18:15Z. Arrival of the shock of this CME at L1 is marked by an abrupt jump in total magnetic field to 27 nT and in solar wind speed from ~380 to over 500 km/s (with further increases to 34 nT and ~600 km/s respectively). There were several bouts of negative Bz, with the maximum negative value of -32 nT. The flux rope seems to arrive around 2023-04-24T01:19Z and is marked by smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-04-23T17:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-24T02:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-04-21T21:21Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1081
Longitude (deg): 016W
Latitude (deg): 23S
Half-angular width (deg): 39

Notes: M1.7 flare from AR3283 vicinity with associated filament eruption. Full halo infinity-shaped shock, however main ejecta seen heading SW. Overlapping lobes of shock give rise to denser portion seen heading NW too, however the SW portion is felt to be the 'main event'. Very clear in all EUV imagery and COR2 and C3. Triangulated using COR2/C3, fitted to C3. Assessed speed is roughly double Type II, which is assumed to have been a harmonic solution.

Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 40.03 hour(s)
Difference: -9.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-04-22T00:58Z

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